A mere 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.