A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."